Dota 2 treasure & Collector's Cache calculator
Manual scenario only: enter every outcome, its probability, and the value you would receive. This site does not supply or verify treasure contents, drop odds, escalation rules, duplicate treatment, or event membership.
- %
- %
- %
Entered probability total: 0.00%. The model runs only at exactly 100%.
Enter a value.
This is a manual modeled expected value, calculated only from your rows. It does not infer odds from tier, rarity, order, or names. Verified-data mode stays unavailable until verified odds exist. A normal or duplicate/recycling value of 0 is a valid entered value; blank outcome values are not modeled. Check market rows in the price table before entering them.
Is opening Dota 2 treasures worth it?
Enter one probability for every outcome and make the total exactly 100%. The calculator multiplies each entered value by its entered probability, then sums those values. If you enable duplicate/recycling treatment, it uses that manual value where you supplied one. If the modeled value after your selected fee treatment is higher than the entered cost, the scenario is +EV; if it is lower, the scenario is -EV.
The result is not a prediction for any named treasure. Omitted outcomes, inaccurate prices, unknown odds, bonus mechanics, and changing market liquidity can materially change real results. Use the tracked treasure browser for market rows, then verify assumptions independently.
Price the set before you gamble
Enter independently verified assumptions, review the tracked market rows, then compare the modeled result.
Related guides
Frequently asked questions
How is treasure expected value calculated?
Enter one manual probability for every valued outcome and make the total exactly 100%. The calculator multiplies each entered value by that entered probability. Blank outcome values are excluded; an explicit 0 is valid. It does not infer odds from rarity, tier, order, or names.
Should I value items before or after the Steam fee?
The toggle applies this site’s stored local sale-fee scenario, reviewed 2026-07-20. It does not verify a current platform rate or exact proceeds; use full value when the fee scenario is not relevant and verify venue terms before selling.
Is it ever worth opening a Collector's Cache?
This calculator cannot answer that without verified outcomes, odds, current prices, and the opening cost. Enter those assumptions explicitly and treat the result as a scenario, not a prediction.
Why does a single open lose money when the jackpot is huge?
Because the jackpot is rare. Expected value weights every outcome by its probability, so a tiny chance at an expensive item is diluted by the large chance of a common one. Over many opens you converge on the average, which is usually below the treasure price.