Dota 2 treasure & Collector's Cache calculator
Enter each possible drop, its value and its chance to see what one open is worth on average and whether that beats the treasure price. We don't publish treasure odds, so the calculator uses the chances you enter.
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Chances add up to 0.00%. They must total exactly 100%.
Enter a value.
The result is the average value per open, based only on the rows you enter. A value of 0 counts; blank values are skipped. Look up drop prices in the price table.
Is opening Dota 2 treasures worth it?
Give every drop a chance so the total is exactly 100%. The calculator multiplies each drop's value by its chance and adds the results — that is the expected value of one open. Turn on duplicate values to use a separate value for drops you would get as duplicates. If the expected value after fees is higher than the treasure price, opening is +EV; if it is lower, it is -EV.
Expected value is an average over many opens, so a single open can land far above or below it. Use the treasure browser to price each drop.
Price the set before you gamble
Check what each drop sells for, then compare the expected value with the price of the item you actually want.
Related guides
Frequently asked questions
How is treasure expected value calculated?
Give every drop a chance so the total is exactly 100%. The calculator multiplies each drop’s value by its chance and adds the results. Blank values are skipped; 0 counts as a value.
Should I value items before or after the Steam fee?
After, if you plan to sell the drops: the fee toggle applies Steam’s standard 15% fee (5% Steam + 10% Dota 2). Turn it off to use full values for items you will keep.
Is it ever worth opening a Collector's Cache?
It depends on the cache price, the drop chances and what each set sells for. Enter those numbers to see the expected value per open, then compare it with buying the set you want directly.
Can expected value be below the opening cost even with an expensive reward?
Yes. An expensive drop adds its value times its chance, not its full price. Example: a 1% chance at $100 and a 99% chance at $0 gives an expected value of $1. If opening costs $2, you lose $1 per open on average.