Dota 2 treasure & Collector's Cache calculator
Should you open the treasure or just buy the set you want? Enter the treasure price and the market value of what's inside — this works out the expected value per open, your profit or loss, and whether unboxing actually beats buying it outright.
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- Items in pool3
- Expected value per open (net)$0.00
- Treasure cost per open−$2.49
- Expected result per open−$2.49
Opening loses about $2.49 per open on average. You're better off buying the exact item you want off the market instead of gambling.
This is expected value — the long-run average across many opens. Any single open can land the jackpot or a common. Odds here assume the model you picked; real treasures often add a small chance of rare bonus items, which you can add as high-weight rows. Prices are yours to fill from the live price table.
Is opening Dota 2 treasures worth it?
Almost every Dota 2 treasure gives you one random item from a fixed set, with roughly equal odds. That makes the math simple: your expected value per open is just the average market price of the items inside. If that average — after the Steam fee you'd pay to sell — is higher than the treasure's price, opening is +EV in the long run. If it's lower, you're better off buying the exact set you want off the market.
In practice most treasures are slightly -EV: Valve prices them so the average open loses a little, because you're paying for the thrill and the chance at a rare bonus. The one time opening wins is right after release, when supply is thin and market prices sit above the treasure price. Once the market floods, prices fall below cost. That's why the Collector's Cache is cheapest to open on day one and cheapest to buy a month later.
Price the set before you gamble
Fill this calculator with real numbers, then decide. These pages give you the live prices.
Related guides
Frequently asked questions
How is treasure expected value calculated?
Each open gives one random item from the set. With equal odds, the expected value per open is the average market price of every item inside. With custom odds, it is the sum of each item price times its probability. Subtract the treasure price to get your expected profit or loss per open.
Should I value items before or after the Steam fee?
If you plan to sell what you unbox, value them after the ~15% Steam fee — that is what actually reaches your wallet, so it is the honest number. If you plan to keep and use the items, value them at full market price. The toggle switches between the two.
Is it ever worth opening a Collector's Cache?
Usually only right after release, when the market has few copies and prices sit above the treasure price. Once supply floods in, most sets fall below the cost to open, and buying the specific set you want becomes cheaper than gambling on a random one.
Why does a single open lose money when the jackpot is huge?
Because the jackpot is rare. Expected value weights every outcome by its probability, so a tiny chance at an expensive item is diluted by the large chance of a common one. Over many opens you converge on the average, which is usually below the treasure price.