Dota 2 Candy Shop Odds: Candyworks Arcana Chances and Rerolls
How Crownfall’s Candyworks shop works, what the Arcana odds are and how many rerolls it takes.
Project editor:GrassKnuckles
Candyworks is the Crownfall candy shop: you collect candy, trade it between five types and spend it on items the Candyworks Caravan shows two at a time. Valve has not published its odds. Dataminers reported a 0.315% chance per reroll for an Arcana. We read that as 0.315% for each of the two shown items, which works out to about 160 rerolls on average. Put any odds into our Candy calculator to see your own range.
How the Candyworks shop works
Candyworks was part of Crownfall, the Dota 2 event that launched in April 2024 (Valve’s announcement archive). The shop is called the Candyworks Caravan. You unlock it by playing the first Act and collecting tokens, according to esports.gg’s launch coverage. Crownfall is now a past event; our Crownfall archive has the timeline.
- Candy: five types — Midgate Mudballs, Shadeshore Sugar Worms, Skywrath Squawksicles, Goldlake Glitterfish and Oglodi Trail Jerky. Candy Sacks on the Crownfall map hold them. The paid Crownfall Royal Bundle added 30 Candy Sacks, 10 rerolls and 20 MMR Double Down tokens (Liquipedia).
- Offers: the Caravan shows two items at a time. Each item is a recipe. Ember Spirit’s Blaze Armor, for example, needed one Sugar Worm, two Squawksicles and one Jerky.
- Trading: three spare candies of one type convert into one candy of another type, so a surplus is never wasted.
- Rerolls: a reroll refreshes the shown items. You get 10 rerolls a week, and winning matches earns more. Rerolls come from this allowance, not from your candy.
Candyworks odds: what Valve says and what dataminers found
Valve’s Crownfall posts describe the shop but list no drop rates, so there are no official odds. The figures below come from dataminers and were reported by ESTNN. Treat them as a community estimate.
| Item category | Reported chance (read per shown item) | Chance in a two-item reroll | Candy cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hero Set | 63.1% | 86.4% | 4 |
| Wards | 12.62% | 23.6% | 5 |
| Couriers | 9.46% | 18.0% | 5 |
| Old Treasure | 6.31% | 12.2% | 8 |
| Announcer | 4.73% | 9.2% | 9 |
| Treasure with Immortal items | 3.15% | 6.2% | 12 |
| Event Coins | 0.315% | 0.63% | 14 |
| Arcana | 0.315% | 0.63% | 16 |
ESTNN words the Arcana figure as “0.315% per reroll”. Reading it per shown item is our interpretation: the eight chances add up to 100%, so they describe a single shown item, and about 160 rerolls matches two slots. An Arcana at 0.315% is about 1 in 317 for each slot. The third column shows the chance that a category appears at least once when two items are on display. The Hero Set is by far the most common offer, and the Arcana the most expensive one: its 16 candies buy four Hero Sets.
Why guides quote different Arcana numbers
You will see “0.315%”, “0.63%”, “1 in 100” and “160 rerolls” in different places. They are not competing claims. 0.315% is the reported figure, which we read as the chance for one shown item. 0.63% is the chance for a whole reroll with two items. 160 is the average number of rerolls that chance implies. A figure such as “1 Arcana per 100 rolls” is a rounded guess and sits well above the reported rate. Always ask whether a number is per item or per reroll before you plan around it.
How many rerolls for an Arcana?
Two items are shown per reroll, so the chance that at least one is an Arcana is 1 − (1 − 0.00315)² ≈ 0.63% per reroll. If each reroll is independent, the odds build up like this:
| Rerolls | Chance of at least one Arcana |
|---|---|
| 10 (one week of free rerolls) | 6.1% |
| 50 | 27.1% |
| 100 | 46.8% |
| 160 | 63.6% |
| 365 | 90.0% |
| 520 (a year at 10 per week) | 96.2% |
The average is about 159 rerolls, which matches the dataminers’ estimate of roughly 160. Averages hide the spread: half of players would see an Arcana within 110 rerolls, while one in ten would need more than 365. Ten free rerolls a week make this a slow chase unless you win matches or buy bundle rerolls.
Here is what the weekly allowance alone gives you, using the same 0.63% per reroll:
| Time played | Free rerolls | Chance of an Arcana |
|---|---|---|
| 1 week | 10 | 6.1% |
| 4 weeks | 40 | 22.3% |
| 12 weeks | 120 | 53.2% |
| 26 weeks | 260 | 80.7% |
Rerolls earned from match wins push you ahead of this schedule. Even so, a player who never gets lucky is a normal outcome of these odds, not a sign that something is broken.
Which Arcanas could appear
esports.gg listed 13 Arcanas in the Caravan pool at launch: Crystal Maiden, Juggernaut, Legion Commander, Lina, Monkey King, Ogre Magi, Phantom Assassin, Pudge, Rubick, Shadow Fiend, Techies, Terrorblade and Zeus. The two Crownfall Arcanas, The Resurrection of Shen and The Devotions of Dragonus, were sold in the event store instead. To see what any Arcana costs on the market, open the Arcana price list, and read the Arcana release timeline for how each one first became available.
How to use the Candy calculator
- Open the Candy calculator.
- In Chance per reroll, enter 0.63 for the reported Arcana odds with two shown items. Use your own number if you trust a different source.
- In Candy per reroll, enter 0. Rerolls use your weekly allowance, not candy.
- Read the average (about 159 rerolls), the 50% mark (110) and the 90% mark (365).
- Compare that effort with the Arcana’s price on the market. If you would need hundreds of rerolls, buying may be the cheaper route.
Chase with rerolls or buy outright?
Rerolls cost no money if you only use the free allowance, so the real price is time. A fair rule: if your target Arcana would take longer than you plan to play, buy it. Check the current price in the Arcana list above, then compare it with how many rerolls the calculator says you need. If you are weighing treasure openings against buying, the Treasure calculator runs the same kind of math.
When an Arcana shows up
Check the recipe against your candy before you do anything else. Dataminers reported a cost of 16 candies for an Arcana, against 4 for a Hero Set. Count each candy type you hold and use the three-for-one trade to cover gaps. Buy the item before you reroll, because a reroll replaces the shown items.
Quick answers
What are the odds of getting an Arcana from the Candy Shop?
Valve has not published them. Dataminers reported 0.315% per reroll. Read per shown item, as we do, that is about 0.63% per reroll with two items on display.
How many rerolls does an Arcana take?
About 160 on average. Half of players would see one within 110 rerolls, and nine in ten within 365.
Do rerolls cost candy?
No. Rerolls come from a weekly allowance of 10, plus extra rerolls for match wins and bundles. Candy pays for the items themselves.
Can I still use the Candyworks shop?
Candyworks belonged to Crownfall, which is now a past event. Check the Crownfall tab in your game client to see what your account can still access.
How much candy does an Arcana cost?
Dataminers reported 16 candies, split across the five candy types by the item’s recipe.