Crownfall Candy Shop reroll calculator
Chasing an Arcana or a set through the Candy Shop? Enter the reroll cost and the odds, and this works out the expected Candy you'll burn to hit it — and whether grinding beats just buying.
Not sure on the odds? The community rule of thumb is roughly — tap to load it.
- Chance per reroll0.60%
- Expected rerolls (average)167
- 50% chance within116 rerolls
- 90% chance within383 rerolls
- Expected candy to hit it833 candy
That's about 167 rerolls on average — a heavy grind. If the reward is an Arcana, the fixed $35 store price will usually be faster than grinding this out.
These are averages from the odds you enter — luck runs both ways. "50% within" and "90% within" show how wide the range really is. Read the mechanics in the Candy Shop drop-chances guide.
How the reroll math works
The Candy Shop hands out its big rewards through rerolls, each with a fixed chance. If every reroll has probability p of landing the reward, the expected number of rerolls is simply 1 ÷ p. So a 0.6% chance means about 167 rerolls on average — which is where the community's "~160 rerolls for an Arcana" figure comes from. Multiply that by the Candy each reroll costs and you get the total Candy you should expect to spend.
The catch is variance. "Expected" is the long-run average; any individual grind can finish far sooner or drag on far longer. That's why we also show the 50% and 90% thresholds — half of players hit it by the first number, nine in ten by the second. If the 90% figure looks brutal next to a fixed $35 store Arcana, that's your answer.
Decide with numbers, not hope
Price the grind against the alternatives before you commit your Candy.
Related guides
Frequently asked questions
How many rerolls does an Arcana take in the Candy Shop?
Roughly 160 rerolls on average, based on the community-observed reroll odds. That is an average — some players hit it much sooner, others much later. Because a store Arcana is a fixed $35, buying is often faster than grinding.
How is the expected number of rerolls calculated?
If each reroll has probability p of landing the reward, the expected number of rerolls is 1 ÷ p. For example, a 0.6% chance gives about 167 rerolls on average. Multiply by the Candy per reroll to get expected Candy spent.
What do the 50% and 90% figures mean?
They show variance. Half of players will hit the reward within the 50% number of rerolls, and nine in ten within the 90% number. The gap between them shows how much luck swings the actual grind versus the average.
Is grinding the Candy Shop worth it?
If you earn Candy naturally by playing the event, the rewards are effectively free time-value — grind on. If you want a specific Arcana quickly, the fixed store price usually beats the long expected reroll count. Decide with the numbers, not the hope of a lucky pull.