Dota 2 Candy Calculator for Crownfall Rerolls
Work out how many rerolls and how much Candy a Crownfall Candy Shop reward takes. Enter the Candy cost per reroll and the chance per reroll; the calculator shows the average plus 50% and 90% ranges.
Crownfall is a past event and we don't publish its odds, so enter the cost and chance from the source you trust.
Enter a value.
These are averages from the chance you enter — luck runs both ways. "50% within" and "90% within" show how wide the range really is. For background, read the Candy Shop drop-chances guide.
Candy reroll math
The calculator treats every reroll as an independent try with the same chance p. The expected number of rerolls is then 1 ÷ p; multiply by the Candy per reroll for the expected Candy total.
The catch is variance. "Expected" is the long-run average; any single run can finish far sooner or drag on far longer. The 50% and 90% rows show how many rerolls it takes to reach those chances of getting the reward.
Compare with buying outright
See what the reward costs on the market and look back at how Crownfall worked.
Related guides
Frequently asked questions
Where do the odds come from?
You enter them, so the calculator works with any reroll cost and chance. Our Candy Shop drop-chances guide explains how reroll odds add up.
How is the expected number of rerolls calculated?
If each reroll has probability p of landing the reward, the expected number of rerolls is 1 ÷ p. For example, a 0.6% chance gives about 167 rerolls on average. Multiply by the Candy per reroll to get expected Candy spent.
What do the 50% and 90% figures mean?
They show how many rerolls give you a 50% or a 90% chance of getting the reward at least once. Roughly one run in ten takes longer than the 90% figure.
How do I tell if a Candy Shop reward was worth it?
Compare the expected Candy cost with what the reward sells for on the market. Our Arcana prices page lists arcana prices, updated daily.